Published: Fri, November 15, 2019
Sci-tech | By Patricia Wade

Global oil demand growth to slow from 2025: IEA

Global oil demand growth to slow from 2025: IEA

Global Witness said in a statement today: "IEA's forecast for how the world can tackle climate change states that fossil gas production should increase by almost 10 per cent over the next decade".

The International Energy Agency's annual report into fuel supply and demand shows a pickup in the rate of growth for wind and solar power.

With nearly a tenth of the world's population living in SE Asia, a rapidly developing industrial base and growing consumer class, it is unsurprising that there has been an increase in demand for energy.

The oil and gas sectors could add more than 200 million tonnes of carbon dioxide to China's total emissions, meaning overall greenhouse gas from energy use would still rise 2% this year and 1.2% in 2020, said researchers with the "China Coal Cap Research Project" at a Thursday briefing.

Environmental advocates say the IEA still isn't doing enough to encourage renewable energy.

If governments continue on the current policy path, fuel and power consumption is set to rise inexorably over the next two decades, the IEA has said in its latest report.

Given the growth in coal demand across the region, it's essential that countries are supported to use the best available technology. Oil Change International notably criticized the IEA's "over-reliance" on natural gas as a replacement for coal, saying that will lead to "climate chaos" because gas, too, contributes to emissions.

As flooding in Venice hit the second-highest level ever this week, inundating St. Mark's Cathedral and grounding gondolas, the city's mayor blamed climate change.

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IEA's Birol is speaking in an interview on Bloomberg. Scientists say it's hard to pin a single such event on climate change, but that increasingly extreme weather events worldwide are linked to human-caused emissions.

"There is a material slowdown after 2025, but this does not lead to a definitive peak in oil use", the IEA said, citing increased demand from trucks and the shipping, aviation and petrochemical sectors. U.S. consumers and businesses were a leading source of growing oil demand previous year, the IEA says. The U.S. will account for 85% of the growth in production worldwide to 2030 as its shale-oil boom continues, according to the IEA. "They project ever-increasing demand for fossil fuels, which in turn justifies greater investments in supply, making it harder for the energy system to change", said Andrew Logan, an executive with a US nonprofit, Ceres.

US tight crude oil production is seen rising to 11 million bpd in 2035 from 6 million bpd in 2018.

The report lays out a more ambitious forecast if governments are to meet the goals in the 2015 United Nations climate accord.

The more ambitious scenario would also require work on new coal plants in Asia to capture their emissions, or closing those plants early.

The report came as activist Greta Thunberg announced she will return to Europe soon from North America on a catamaran that leaves almost no carbon footprint, part of effort to call global attention to individuals' impact on climate change.

Some critics say that because it doesn't take account of the likelihood that governments will take more drastic action to curb emissions, it means projections will inevitably be conservative.

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