Published: Thu, September 12, 2019
Sci-tech | By Patricia Wade

Tropical wave in Bahamas could develop in Gulf of Mexico

Tropical wave in Bahamas could develop in Gulf of Mexico

While conditions are most favorable for tropical storms and hurricanes on the 10th of September, it doesn't guarantee there will be an active named storm.

The National Hurricane Center now puts a 60% chance for development over the next five days. The NHC sees just a 20% chance it develops into a tropical cyclone in the coming five days.

Another area of low pressure near the Lesser Antilles could develop but upper-level winds are likely to prevent that, the forecast said.

A couple of tropical systems could be concerns for us

Forecasters say the area of showers and storms, now sitting near the Turks and Caicos Islands, will move over the state late this week, enhancing the chance of rain through the weekend.

For the system nearest to the U.S. the see a 0% chance of formation into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, rising to 30% over the next 5 days. In the tropics, Tropical Wave Invest 95L will move into the Gulf this weekend, possibly becoming a depression or storm. Although this disturbance continues to produce disorganized showers some slight development of the system as possible in the coming days.

Yet another system, a tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic, is forecast to move quickly westward and is given a 30 percent chance of development over five days. The GFS operational run shows a closed low developing, but its ensembles do not. While it may have worked in the past, the area has a 40 to 50 percent chance of rain and thunder at least until Sunday, according to the Keys weather service. Temperatures are expected to feel like they're over 105 degrees, particularly in the interior southwest of the state. Highs still reach the middle 90s the next 2 afternoon.

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