Published: Wed, July 10, 2019
Sci-tech | By Patricia Wade

NHC: Low in Gulf likely be a tropical system by Thursday

NHC: Low in Gulf likely be a tropical system by Thursday

Depending on the track, and how long the depression remains over the Gulf, some weather models go on to develop a full-blow tropical storm from there.

According to meteorologists, the storm is most likely to be triggered by what is known as a mesoscale convective system (MCS), which started in the Midwest last week and then moved into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico from the Deep South.

That's because the Mississippi River is already swollen from spring rains as the weather system builds in the Gulf and could add about a metre of storm surge to the river. The cone of uncertainty was in place from near Galveston, Texas to eastern Louisiana.

While the disturbance in the Gulf remained poorly organized Tuesday night, there are all signs that the NHC may initiate "Potential Tropical Cyclone" advisories even if no definitive tropical depression center is identified Wednesday.

The low is now located over the Florida Panhandle and moving into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

A weather system heading toward the Gulf Coast now has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical storm, putting cities from Houston to Mobile, Alabama on alert and prompting oil rig evacuations in the Gulf of Mexico.

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Operations at the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the only US port where the largest crude tankers can load and unload, were normal on Wednesday morning, a spokeswoman said. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the central U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.Maximum sustained winds are near 30 miles per hour (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

Regardless of the classification this system develops into, both Louisiana and MS are forecast to see very heavy rain - more than a foot in some places, Brink said. The American Model is now more reflective of the European and also brings the storm into Louisiana, but a little more to the west. A tornado or waterspout was also spotted near the University of New Orleans, WWL-TV said.

"The city is protected to a project height of 20 feet".

While the primary threat from this system will be rainfall, with up to double the amounts possible in isolated areas given the Weather Prediction Center's (WPC) forecast, wind and surge could ultimately become larger factors to deal with.

Kottlowski has been warning since early April that the Gulf of Mexico, as well as areas east of Bermuda and off the southeastern coast of the United States, need to be watched closely for early season development due to water temperatures running above normal.

Wind: tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Thursday or early Friday.

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